III. Keruleti TVE · Analysis updated 09:06 UTC
Ferencváros W vs Sparta Praha W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ferencváros W and 1.91 for Sparta Praha W, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Sparta Praha W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sparta Praha W win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferencváros W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Praha W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sparta Praha W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 22% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Ferencváros W and 1.91 for Sparta Praha W, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–16.9%
- 0–16.7%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Ferencváros W
- 2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Mitrovica W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs PAOK W · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Praha W · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha W · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vålerenga W · 1-2 (L)
Sparta Praha W
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Horní Heršpice W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Plzeň W · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Praha W win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.