Groupama Arena · Analysis updated 20:47 UTC
Ferencvarosi TC vs MTK Budapest Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.30 for MTK Budapest, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Ferencvarosi TC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.9% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferencvarosi TC home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
MTK Budapest away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Ferencvarosi TC
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs DEAC · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 2-2 (D)
MTK Budapest
- 2026-09-20T12:40:00.000Z · H vs Gyori ETO FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mezokovesd-zsory · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kisvarda FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Debreceni VSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-23T19:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 3-1 MTK Budapest (NB I)
- 2025-11-01T19:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 4-1 MTK Budapest (NB I)
- 2025-07-26T18:15:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 1-1 MTK Budapest (NB I)
- 2025-04-27T13:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 3-2 MTK Budapest (NB I)
- 2025-04-23T18:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 3-1 MTK Budapest (Magyar Kupa)
- 2025-02-02T19:15:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 0-0 MTK Budapest (NB I)
- 2024-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 3-1 MTK Budapest (NB I)
- 2024-04-28T15:45:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 2-1 MTK Budapest (NB I)
- 2024-02-06T19:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 5-1 MTK Budapest (NB I)
- 2023-09-30T15:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 6-1 MTK Budapest (NB I)
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.