Groupama Arena · Analysis updated 21:38 UTC
Ferencvarosi TC vs Paks Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.33 for Paks, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Ferencvarosi TC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferencvarosi TC home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Paks away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ferencvarosi TC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.33 for Paks, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.7%
Recent form
Ferencvarosi TC
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs DEAC · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 2-2 (D)
Paks
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisvarda FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kazincbarcikai · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.