Groupama Aréna · Referee Rade Obrenovič, Slovenia · Analysis updated 11:56 UTC
Ferencvarosi TC vs Trabzonspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.48 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Trabzonspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferencvarosi TC home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Trabzonspor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trabzonspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 25% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.48 for Trabzonspor, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 68.5% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +2.0 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 43.5% | 44.7% | 2.24 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.96 | 31.6% | 32.3% | 3.10 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.24 | 41.7% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 57.6% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 67.7% | 67.7% | 1.48 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 51.6% | 1.94 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 56.5% | 55.3% | 1.81 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.7% | 25.4% | 3.94 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ferencvarosi TC
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisvarda FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Plzen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 3-1 (W)
Trabzonspor
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Samsunspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-27T18:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 4-0 Trabzonspor (UEFA Europa League)
- 2026-08-20T17:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 1-0 Trabzonspor (UEFA Europa League)
- 2022-11-03T17:45:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 0-1 Trabzonspor (UEFA Europa League)
- 2022-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 3-2 Trabzonspor (UEFA Europa League)
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.