Groupama Arena · Referee F. Karako · Analysis updated 20:47 UTC
Ferencvarosi TC vs Ujpest Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.53 for Ujpest, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Ferencvarosi TC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferencvarosi TC home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ujpest away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Ferencvarosi TC
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs DEAC · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 2-2 (D)
Ujpest
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Budapest Honved · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Fehérvár FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zalaegerszegi TE · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorogi FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 2-2 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 5-0 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2026-02-07T16:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 3-0 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2025-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 1-1 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2025-04-06T17:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 2-0 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2025-04-02T17:45:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 3-1 Ujpest (Magyar Kupa)
- 2024-12-01T18:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 0-0 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2024-08-17T17:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 1-0 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2024-05-19T18:15:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 2-0 Ujpest (NB I)
- 2024-02-25T16:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 5-0 Ujpest (NB I)
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.