Groupama Arena · Referee T. Bognar · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Ferencvarosi TC vs Vasas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 3.00 for Vasas, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Vasas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vasas win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferencvarosi TC home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Vasas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.1%
- 1–36.1%
- 2–26.1%
- 2–36.1%
- 1–44.5%
Recent form
Ferencvarosi TC
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Debreceni VSC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs DEAC · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 2-2 (D)
Vasas
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Debreceni VSC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TFSE Budapest · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Ujpest · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Puskas Academy · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T15:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 0-0 Vasas (NB I)
- 2023-04-22T17:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 1-0 Vasas (NB I)
- 2023-01-28T18:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 0-0 Vasas (NB I)
- 2022-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 1-0 Vasas (NB I)
- 2022-02-09T19:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 2-0 Vasas (Magyar Kupa)
- 2018-05-12T17:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 1-1 Vasas (NB I)
- 2017-12-09T18:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 2-0 Vasas (NB I)
- 2017-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 5-2 Vasas (NB I)
- 2017-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 2-2 Vasas (Magyar Kupa)
- 2017-04-15T18:30:00.000Z · Ferencvarosi TC 1-2 Vasas (NB I)
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vasas win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.