Fernwald vs 1960 Hanau Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Fernwald and 1.75 for 1960 Hanau, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives 1960 Hanau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fernwald home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1960 Hanau away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1960 Hanau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 34% / 23% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Fernwald and 1.75 for 1960 Hanau, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Fernwald win34%

Draw23%

1960 Hanau win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–110.0%
1–28.8%
2–17.8%
2–26.8%
0–16.5%

Recent form

Fernwald

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hummetroth · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eddersheim · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gießen · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs TuBa Pohlheim · 1-1 (D)

1960 Hanau

2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf · 2-5 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hummetroth · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Alzenau · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eddersheim · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fernwald · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Hessen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	14	10	2	2	30	32
2	Unter-Flockenbach	14	9	2	3	12	29
3	Eddersheim	14	7	4	3	7	25
4	Friedberg	14	7	3	4	6	24
5	Hadamar	14	7	3	4	3	24
6	TuBa Pohlheim	14	7	2	5	0	23
7	Darmstadt 98 II	14	6	3	5	13	21
8	Vfb Marburg	14	6	3	5	1	21
9	Hünfelder SV	14	6	1	7	-1	19
10	Fernwald	14	3	9	2	2	18
11	Kassel	14	5	3	6	-10	18
12	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	14	5	2	7	-8	17
13	Bayern Alzenau	14	4	4	6	-3	16
14	Baunatal	14	4	4	6	-5	16
15	1960 Hanau	14	3	4	7	-11	13
16	Hummetroth	14	3	3	8	-8	12
17	Kassel 2	14	3	3	8	-8	12
18	FC Gießen	14	2	3	9	-20	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.