· Analysis updated 00:00 UTC
Ferro 2 vs Deportivo Riestra Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Ferro 2 and 2.08 for Deportivo Riestra Res., a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Deportivo Riestra Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Riestra Res. win
67.7% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Riestra Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Riestra Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 13% / 20% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Ferro 2 and 2.08 for Deportivo Riestra Res., a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 47%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.5%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–38.7%
Recent form
Ferro 2
Deportivo Riestra Res.
- 2026-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín San Juan Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Riva. Res. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central Res. · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Riestra Res. win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.