· Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Ferro 2 vs Platense Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Ferro 2 and 0.88 for Platense Res., a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Ferro 2 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.7% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Platense Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ferro 2 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 33% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Ferro 2 and 0.88 for Platense Res., a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.5%
- 1–015.3%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Ferro 2
Platense Res.
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Res. · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.