Argentina · Primera Nacional · Matchweek 3018:30

1 – 0

Saturday, 19 September 2026

Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry · Analysis updated 06:34 UTC

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Ciudad de Bolívar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.60 for Ciudad de Bolívar, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Ferro Carril Oeste the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ferro Carril Oeste win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.60

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ferro Carril Oeste home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ciudad de Bolívar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ferro Carril Oeste to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 28% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.60 for Ciudad de Bolívar, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Ferro Carril Oeste win55%

Draw28%

Ciudad de Bolívar win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–019.2%
0–014.2%
2–013.0%
1–111.5%
0–18.5%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.

Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.53 (model 66.6% vs market 61.1%, edge +5.5 pts).

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Both teams to score	NoValue	1.53	61.1%	66.6%	1.50	+5.5
Double chance	Home/Away	1.33	70.5%	71.6%	1.40	+1.1
Match result	Home	1.67	54.8%	55.1%	1.81	+0.3
Match result	Away	5.50	16.6%	16.5%	6.06	-0.1
Match result	Draw	3.20	28.6%	28.3%	3.53	-0.3
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.12	83.7%	83.4%	1.20	-0.3
Double chance	Draw/Away	2.05	45.7%	44.8%	2.23	-0.9
Both teams to score	Yes	2.40	38.9%	33.4%	2.99	-5.5

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Ferro Carril Oeste

2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Norte · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Madryn · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Defensores De Belgrano · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Bolívar · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Almirante Brown · 0-0 (D)

Ciudad de Bolívar

2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs San Telmo · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Acassuso · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaco For Ever · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ferro Carril Oeste · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Norte · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · Ferro Carril Oeste 1-0 Ciudad de Bolívar (Primera Nacional)
2026-05-03T19:00:00.000Z · Ferro Carril Oeste 4-2 Ciudad de Bolívar (Primera Nacional)

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	34	19	8	7	10	65
2	Godoy Cruz	34	17	9	8	16	60
3	Deportivo Moron	34	17	7	10	15	58
4	Deportivo Madryn	34	14	12	8	17	54
5	Colon Santa Fe	34	14	12	8	14	54
6	Ciudad de Bolívar	34	13	12	9	1	51
7	Almirante Brown	34	12	12	10	4	48
8	CA Estudiantes	34	13	9	12	1	48
9	Los Andes	34	9	14	11	1	41
10	Chaco For Ever	34	10	10	14	-3	40
11	Racing Cordoba	34	10	10	14	-10	40
12	Atletico Mitre	34	8	15	11	-8	39
13	Defensores De Belgrano	34	8	14	12	-7	38
14	San Telmo	34	9	11	14	-9	38
15	Central Norte	34	7	16	11	-8	37
16	All Boys	34	6	17	11	-10	35
17	Acassuso	34	8	9	17	-10	33
18	San Miguel	34	6	14	14	-14	32
1	Tristan Suarez	34	16	14	4	18	62
2	Temperley	34	16	12	6	13	60
3	Gimnasia Jujuy	34	16	10	8	9	58
4	Atlanta	34	18	4	12	7	58
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	14	10	10	6	52
6	Midland	34	14	9	11	11	51
7	Colegiales	34	14	8	12	4	50
8	Deportivo Maipu	34	13	9	12	7	48
9	San Martin S.J.	34	12	11	11	2	47
10	San Martin Tucuman	34	11	13	10	3	46
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	12	9	13	-6	45
12	Almagro	34	11	8	15	-10	41
13	Agropecuario	34	10	10	14	-11	40
14	Quilmes	34	10	9	15	1	39
15	Patronato	34	7	16	11	-4	37
16	Chacarita Juniors	34	10	6	18	-9	36
17	Nueva Chicago	34	9	9	16	-9	36
18	Club Atlético Güemes	34	6	8	20	-32	26

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ferro Carril Oeste win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.