Ferroviária vs Brusque Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Ferroviária and 1.33 for Brusque, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Ferroviária the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ferroviária win

53.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.01 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ferroviária home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brusque away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ferroviária to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Ferroviária and 1.33 for Brusque, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ferroviária win53%

Draw22%

Brusque win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

2–19.5%
1–19.5%
2–07.1%
1–07.1%
3–16.4%

Recent form

Ferroviária

2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Paysandu · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Brusque · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Brusque · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Paysandu · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter De Limeira · 3-3 (D)

Brusque

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Paysandu · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter De Limeira · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Ferroviária · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter De Limeira · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Botafogo PB	19	10	3	6	9	33
2	Brusque	19	9	5	5	6	32
3	Ferroviária	19	8	6	5	7	30
4	Maringá	19	8	6	5	2	30
5	Floresta	19	8	6	5	2	30
6	Inter De Limeira	19	8	6	5	2	30
7	Paysandu	19	9	2	8	-1	29
8	Santa Cruz	19	8	5	6	5	29
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	8	5	6	3	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	7	7	5	10	28
11	Figueirense	19	7	7	5	-3	28
12	Maranhão	19	7	6	6	1	27
13	Amazonas	19	7	5	7	-2	26
14	Caxias	19	6	7	6	1	25
15	Ituano	19	6	4	9	-3	22
16	Volta Redonda	19	6	3	10	-12	21
17	Barra	19	5	6	8	0	21
18	Anápolis	19	5	4	10	-5	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	4	5	10	-13	17
20	Confiança	19	3	4	12	-9	13
1	Ferroviária	6	3	2	1	3	11
2	Inter De Limeira	6	1	4	1	0	7
3	Brusque	6	1	4	1	0	7
4	Paysandu	6	1	2	3	-3	5
1	Maringá	6	3	2	1	4	11
2	Santa Cruz	6	3	2	1	2	11
3	Floresta	6	1	2	3	-3	5
4	Botafogo PB	6	1	2	3	-3	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ferroviária win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.