· Analysis updated 13:45 UTC
Ferroviario U20 vs Ceará U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Ferroviario U20 and 1.15 for Ceará U20, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Ceará U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.6% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferroviario U20 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ceará U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 30% / 30% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.96 goals for Ferroviario U20 and 1.15 for Ceará U20, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 42%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.1%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–28.0%
Recent form
Ferroviario U20
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Esporte de Patos U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Horizonte U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Anjos do Céu U20 · 1-0 (W)
Ceará U20
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Goiás U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviario U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Piauiense U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza U20 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real FC U20 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Ceará U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tirol U20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4 | Caucaia U20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 5 | Horizonte U20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 6 | Anjos do Céu U20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 7 | Tiangua CE U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Quixadá U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Ferroviario U20 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 3 | Atlético Cearense U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Fortaleza U20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 5 | Floresta CE U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Alianca U20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 7 | Juazeiro EC U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.