Estadio Presidente Vargas · Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Ferroviario vs Icasa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ferroviario and 1.03 for Icasa, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Ferroviario the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferroviario home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Icasa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ferroviario to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Ferroviario and 1.03 for Icasa, a combined 2.19 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–111.6%
- 0–011.3%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Ferroviario
- 2026-07-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Goiatuba EC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Goiatuba EC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Imperatriz · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Imperatriz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Central SC · 2-0 (W)
Icasa
- 2026-06-14T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Itapipoca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Itapipoca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Crateús · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Crateús · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani De Juazeiro · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense - 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ceara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Icasa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Ferroviario | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Horizonte | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Itapipoca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Maracanã | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Maranguape | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Floresta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Iguatu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.