· Analysis updated 21:34 UTC
Ferrymead Bays vs Auckland FC 2 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ferrymead Bays and 1.09 for Auckland FC 2, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Ferrymead Bays the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ferrymead Bays win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferrymead Bays home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ferrymead Bays to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Ferrymead Bays and 1.09 for Auckland FC 2, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–18.4%
Recent form
Ferrymead Bays
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Olympic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T03:30:00.000Z · H vs Eastern Suburbs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-02-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Cashmere Technical · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Nomads United · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-08-23T03:15:00.000Z · H vs Wanaka · 2-1 (W)
Auckland FC 2
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - National table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Wellington Olympic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Napier City Rovers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Miramar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Wellington Phoenix II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Auckland United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Ferrymead Bays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Eastern Suburbs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Auckland City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Auckland FC 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Birkenhead United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ferrymead Bays win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.