Ferrymead Park · Analysis updated 16:32 UTC
Ferrymead Bays vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Ferrymead Bays and 0.83 for Eastern Suburbs, a combined total of 1.84. That distribution gives Ferrymead Bays the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.0% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferrymead Bays home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Eastern Suburbs away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ferrymead Bays to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 32% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Ferrymead Bays and 0.83 for Eastern Suburbs, a combined 1.84 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.0%
- 0–015.9%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–113.2%
- 2–08.1%
Recent form
Ferrymead Bays
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Olympic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T03:30:00.000Z · H vs Eastern Suburbs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-02-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Cashmere Technical · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Nomads United · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-08-23T03:15:00.000Z · H vs Wanaka · 2-1 (W)
Eastern Suburbs
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Olympic · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Auckland City · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T03:30:00.000Z · A vs Ferrymead Bays · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Birkenhead United · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - National table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Wellington Olympic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Napier City Rovers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Miramar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Wellington Phoenix II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Auckland United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Ferrymead Bays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Eastern Suburbs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Auckland City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Auckland FC 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Birkenhead United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.