Stadion Feijenoord · Referee Danny Makkelie · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.24 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Feyenoord the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Feyenoord win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Feyenoord home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AZ Alkmaar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 40.0% vs market 35.5%, edge +4.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 35.5% | 40.0% | 2.50 | +4.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.5% | 77.3% | 1.29 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 25.3% | 25.4% | 3.94 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.7% | 22.7% | 4.41 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 52.0% | 51.9% | 1.93 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.7% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.91 | 48.9% | 48.1% | 2.08 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.5% | 60.0% | 1.67 | -4.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Feyenoord
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 3-1 (W)
AZ Alkmaar
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T14:45:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-09-21T14:45:00.000Z · Feyenoord 3-3 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-04-05T14:30:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-0 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2024-11-02T20:00:00.000Z · Feyenoord 3-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2024-02-07T20:00:00.000Z · Feyenoord 2-0 AZ Alkmaar (KNVB Beker)
- 2024-02-04T13:30:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-0 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2023-11-12T15:45:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-0 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2023-02-18T20:00:00.000Z · Feyenoord 2-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2022-10-16T14:45:00.000Z · Feyenoord 3-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
- 2022-02-27T11:15:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Feyenoord win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.