De Kuip · Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Feyenoord vs Cambuur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.95 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.35 for Cambuur, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives Feyenoord the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Feyenoord win
69.9% probability
Expected goals
2.95 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Feyenoord home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cambuur away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Feyenoord to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 15% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.95 goals for Feyenoord and 1.35 for Cambuur, a combined 4.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–05.9%
- 3–05.8%
- 4–15.8%
Recent form
Feyenoord
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Como · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 7-0 (W)
Cambuur
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Feyenoord win, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.