De Kuip · Analysis updated 17:39 UTC
Feyenoord vs FC Porto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.57 for FC Porto, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Feyenoord the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Feyenoord win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Feyenoord home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Porto away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Feyenoord to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 22% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Feyenoord and 1.57 for FC Porto, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
Feyenoord
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Como · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 5-0 (W)
FC Porto
- 2026-10-24T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -6 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Feyenoord win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.