Feyenoord vs Groningen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.98 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.53 for Groningen, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Feyenoord the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Feyenoord win

66.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.98 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Feyenoord home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Groningen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Feyenoord win67%

Draw16%

Groningen win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

2–17.5%
3–17.4%
2–25.7%
3–25.7%
4–15.5%

Recent form

Feyenoord

2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Como · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 7-0 (W)
2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 1-5 (L)

Groningen

2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-25T14:30:00.000Z · Feyenoord 3-1 Groningen (Eredivisie)
2025-09-28T12:30:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-0 Groningen (Eredivisie)
2025-04-02T18:00:00.000Z · Feyenoord 4-1 Groningen (Eredivisie)
2024-09-14T16:45:00.000Z · Feyenoord 2-2 Groningen (Eredivisie)
2024-02-29T19:00:00.000Z · Feyenoord 2-1 Groningen (KNVB Beker)
2023-03-04T19:00:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-0 Groningen (Eredivisie)
2023-01-15T15:45:00.000Z · Feyenoord 3-0 Groningen (Eredivisie)
2022-03-05T20:00:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-1 Groningen (Eredivisie)
2021-12-12T13:30:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-1 Groningen (Eredivisie)
2021-02-24T17:45:00.000Z · Feyenoord 0-0 Groningen (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	10	19
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	12	15
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	-1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	2	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	-11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	-15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	-10	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Feyenoord win, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.