Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.50 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives Feyenoord the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Feyenoord win

64.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.78 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Feyenoord home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
NEC Nijmegen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Feyenoord win64%

Draw17%

NEC Nijmegen win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals62%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

2–18.0%
3–17.4%
2–26.0%
1–15.8%
3–25.6%

Recent form

Feyenoord

2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Como · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 5-0 (W)

NEC Nijmegen

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · Feyenoord 3-1 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
2026-04-12T12:30:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-1 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
2025-11-23T13:30:00.000Z · Feyenoord 2-4 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
2025-03-01T20:00:00.000Z · Feyenoord 0-0 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
2024-09-28T16:45:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-1 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
2024-05-12T12:30:00.000Z · Feyenoord 3-2 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z · Feyenoord 1-0 NEC Nijmegen (KNVB Beker)
2024-01-14T15:45:00.000Z · Feyenoord 2-2 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
2023-02-08T20:00:00.000Z · Feyenoord 4-4 NEC Nijmegen (KNVB Beker)
2023-01-25T20:00:00.000Z · Feyenoord 2-0 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	5	15
8	Groningen	9	4	2	3	3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	3	3	4	-3	12
11	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-10	12
12	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-12	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	-22	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Feyenoord win, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.