Kaplakriki · Referee J. I. Jonsson · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
FH hafnarfjordur vs Valur Reykjavik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for FH hafnarfjordur and 1.48 for Valur Reykjavik, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives FH hafnarfjordur the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FH hafnarfjordur home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valur Reykjavik away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FH hafnarfjordur to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for FH hafnarfjordur and 1.48 for Valur Reykjavik, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
FH hafnarfjordur
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Keflavik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IA Akranes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T18:15:00.000Z · A vs KA Akureyri · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T19:15:00.000Z · H vs KR Reykjavik · 1-1 (D)
Valur Reykjavik
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Thor Akureyri · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Keflavik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:15:00.000Z · H vs IA Akranes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 46 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 44 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 9 | FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -12 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -13 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.