Kaplakriki · Referee J. I. Jonsson · Analysis updated 19:42 UTC
FH hafnarfjordur vs Vikingur Reykjavik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for FH hafnarfjordur and 2.11 for Vikingur Reykjavik, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Vikingur Reykjavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vikingur Reykjavik win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 2.11
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FH hafnarfjordur home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vikingur Reykjavik away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vikingur Reykjavik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 23% / 21% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for FH hafnarfjordur and 2.11 for Vikingur Reykjavik, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–27.4%
- 0–17.0%
- 1–36.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.15 | 42.9% | 43.8% | 2.28 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 1.65 | 55.4% | 56.2% | 1.78 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 4.10 | 22.3% | 23.0% | 4.35 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.9% | 1.79 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 78.9% | 79.2% | 1.26 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.42 | 65.9% | 66.0% | 1.52 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.50 | 36.2% | 36.3% | 2.75 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.75 | 34.1% | 34.0% | 2.94 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.42 | 63.8% | 63.7% | 1.57 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.1% | 2.27 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 78.2% | 77.0% | 1.30 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.10 | 22.3% | 20.8% | 4.81 | -1.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FH hafnarfjordur
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Keflavik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IA Akranes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T18:15:00.000Z · A vs KA Akureyri · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T19:15:00.000Z · H vs KR Reykjavik · 1-1 (D)
Vikingur Reykjavik
- 2026-10-24T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Fram Reykjavik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-16T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Breidablik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:15:00.000Z · H vs IA Akranes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KR Reykjavik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Keflavik · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 46 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 44 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 9 | FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -12 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -13 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vikingur Reykjavik win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.