Orlando Scarpelli · Analysis updated 14:08 UTC
Figueirense U20 vs Carlos Renaux U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Figueirense U20 and 0.64 for Carlos Renaux U20, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Figueirense U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Figueirense U20 win
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Figueirense U20 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carlos Renaux U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Figueirense U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 20% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Figueirense U20 and 0.64 for Carlos Renaux U20, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 2–014.3%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–09.2%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Figueirense U20
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Avaí U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusque U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Carlos Renaux U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nação U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense U20 · 0-5 (L)
Carlos Renaux U20
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Joinville U20 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brusque U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Criciuma U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Figueirense U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra SC U20 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Catarinense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avaí U20 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | Barra SC U20 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Criciuma U20 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Chapecoense U20 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 5 | Figueirense U20 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Nação U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Concórdia U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | Joinville U20 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 9 | Carlos Renaux U20 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 10 | Brusque U20 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Figueirense U20 win, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.