HFC Bank Stadium · Referee C. Kawana-Waugh · Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Fiji vs Tahiti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Fiji and 1.05 for Tahiti, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives Fiji the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fiji win
73.3% probability
Expected goals
2.78 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tahiti away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fiji to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 15% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.78 goals for Fiji and 1.05 for Tahiti, a combined 3.84 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–18.2%
- 3–07.7%
- 1–16.3%
Recent form
Fiji
Tahiti
- 2025-03-21T02:00:00.000Z · A vs New Caledonia · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-11-18T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanuatu · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-11-15T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Samoa · 3-0 (W)
- 2024-10-11T02:00:00.000Z · A vs New Zealand · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-06-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiji · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
OFC Nations Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Zealand | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 |
| 2 | Fiji | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
| 3 | Tahiti | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 4 | Vanuatu | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 5 | Samoa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 6 | Papua New Guinea | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 7 | Cook Islands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Tonga | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 9 | Solomon Islands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fiji win, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.