· Analysis updated 17:42 UTC
Fiľakovo vs Čadca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Fiľakovo and 1.43 for Čadca, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Fiľakovo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fiľakovo home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Čadca away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fiľakovo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Fiľakovo and 1.43 for Čadca, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Fiľakovo
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kysucké Nové Mesto · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Námestovo · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ružomberok II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Fomat Martin · 6-1 (W)
Čadca
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Prešov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rimavská Sobota · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dolný Kubín · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kysucké Nové Mesto · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Námestovo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - Center table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ružomberok II | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 23 |
| 2 | Námestovo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Fiľakovo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Fomat Martin | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Čadca | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Podkonice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Rimavská Sobota | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Novohrad Lučenec | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Baník Kalinovo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Oravské Veselé | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 11 | Banská Byst II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Sokol Medzibrod | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 13 | Kysucké Nové Mesto | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 14 | Dolný Kubín | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.