· Analysis updated 06:21 UTC
Filiaşi vs Petrolul Hartiesti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.70 expected goals for Filiaşi and 0.92 for Petrolul Hartiesti, a combined total of 4.62. That distribution gives Filiaşi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Filiaşi win
86.1% probability
Expected goals
3.70 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Filiaşi home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Filiaşi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 86% / 9% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.70 goals for Filiaşi and 0.92 for Petrolul Hartiesti, a combined 4.62 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 58%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
14%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.3%
- 4–07.7%
- 3–17.7%
- 4–17.1%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Filiaşi
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Păușești · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CS U Craiova II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oltul Curtişoara · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vulturii Fărcăşeşti · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Targu Jiu · 1-3 (L)
Petrolul Hartiesti
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CS U Craiova II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Academica Balș · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Minerul Lupeni · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | CSM Targu Jiu | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 3 | CS U Craiova II | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Minerul Lupeni | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Jiul Petroşani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Filiaşi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Unirea Bascov | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Academica Balș | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Oltul Curtişoara | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Păușești | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -25 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Filiaşi win, at 86.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.