Tammela Stadium · Referee Joonas Jaanovits, Estonia · Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
Finland vs Andorra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Finland and 0.87 for Andorra, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Finland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Finland win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Finland home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Andorra away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Finland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Finland and 0.87 for Andorra, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Finland
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Belarus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albania · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Belarus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marino · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-06-05T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Hungary · 1-2 (L)
Andorra
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Malta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lithuania · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gibraltar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosovo · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Finland win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.