Finn Park · Analysis updated 15:01 UTC
Finn Harps vs Bray Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.83 for Bray Wanderers, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Bray Wanderers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bray Wanderers win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Finn Harps home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bray Wanderers away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bray Wanderers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Finn Harps and 1.83 for Bray Wanderers, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–17.1%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Finn Harps
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cobh Ramblers · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bray Wanderers · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Longford Town · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cork City · 0-3 (L)
Bray Wanderers
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cobh Ramblers · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Treaty United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kerry · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cork City · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bray Wanderers win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.