Finnsnes vs Skjervøy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for Finnsnes and 1.21 for Skjervøy, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Finnsnes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Finnsnes win

62.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.34 – 1.21

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Finnsnes home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Skjervøy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Finnsnes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.34 goals for Finnsnes and 1.21 for Skjervøy, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Finnsnes win62%

Draw19%

Skjervøy win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.5%
1–18.1%
2–07.9%
3–17.4%
1–06.7%

Recent form

Finnsnes

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjervøy · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fløya · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alta · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Strømsgodset II · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-30T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lillestrøm II · 0-1 (L)

Skjervøy

2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fauske Sprint · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Finnsnes · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Skjetten · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skedsmo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bossekop · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Skedsmo	23	16	2	5	23	50
2	Fløya	23	14	3	6	29	45
3	Alta	23	13	6	4	26	45
4	Harstad	23	13	4	6	36	43
5	Finnsnes	23	11	4	8	5	37
6	Skjetten	23	10	3	10	5	33
7	Kongsvinger II	23	10	2	11	-17	32
8	Fauske Sprint	23	9	4	10	-15	31
9	Lillestrøm II	23	9	1	13	13	28
10	Tromsø II	23	7	6	10	4	27
11	Strømsgodset II	23	8	3	12	-3	27
12	Skjervøy	23	8	3	12	-21	27
13	Bossekop	23	5	4	14	-42	19
14	Ulfstind	23	4	3	16	-43	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Finnsnes win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.