Stadio Artemio Franchi · Referee G. Manganiello · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Fiorentina vs Benevento Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.21 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.44 for Benevento, a combined total of 4.65. That distribution gives Fiorentina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fiorentina win
71.8% probability
Expected goals
3.21 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fiorentina home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benevento away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.6%
- 2–17.1%
- 4–16.1%
- 3–25.5%
- 3–05.3%
Recent form
Fiorentina
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-2 (L)
Benevento
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrarese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Ascoli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T19:15:00.000Z · Fiorentina 4-1 Benevento (Coppa Italia)
- 2021-12-15T20:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 2-1 Benevento (Coppa Italia)
- 2021-03-13T17:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 4-1 Benevento (Serie A)
- 2020-11-22T11:30:00.000Z · Fiorentina 0-1 Benevento (Serie A)
- 2018-03-11T11:30:00.000Z · Fiorentina 1-0 Benevento (Serie A)
- 2017-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 3-0 Benevento (Serie A)
Coppa Italia table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fiorentina | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Palermo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Genoa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Cremonese | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Monza | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Udinese | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Frosinone | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Sassuolo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Hellas Verona | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Arezzo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Venezia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Parma | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Torino | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Benevento | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Ascoli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Mantova | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | Catanzaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Virtus Entella | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Empoli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Vicenza Virtus | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Sudtirol | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | Catania | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 24 | Pisa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 25 | Modena | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Carrarese | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Padova | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Ravenna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Potenza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Lazio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Lecce | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Sampdoria | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Union Brescia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 34 | Juve Stabia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Avellino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 36 | Cesena | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fiorentina win, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.