Stadio Artemio Franchi · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Fiorentina vs Como Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.42 for Como, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Como the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.3% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fiorentina home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Como away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.9%
- 0–28.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 49.9% vs market 40.6%, edge +9.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.6% | 49.9% | 2.00 | +9.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 53.4% | 55.2% | 1.81 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Home | 3.30 | 28.1% | 28.7% | 3.48 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.5% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 45.3% | 44.8% | 2.23 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 71.9% | 71.3% | 1.40 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.7% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 59.4% | 50.1% | 2.00 | -9.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fiorentina
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-2 (L)
Como
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Parma · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-14T14:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 2-1 Como (Serie A)
- 2026-01-27T20:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 1-3 Como (Coppa Italia)
- 2025-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 1-2 Como (Serie A)
- 2025-02-16T11:30:00.000Z · Fiorentina 0-2 Como (Serie A)
- 2024-11-24T14:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina 2-0 Como (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.