Stadio Artemio Franchi · Referee Giuseppe Collu, Italy · Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Fiorentina vs Frosinone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.89 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Fiorentina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fiorentina win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fiorentina home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frosinone away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fiorentina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Fiorentina and 0.89 for Frosinone, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 52.3% vs market 44.7%, edge +7.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.7% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +7.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 42.3% | 44.5% | 2.25 | +2.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 55.5% | 55.5% | 1.80 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.4% | 24.4% | 4.10 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 20.1% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 76.2% | 75.6% | 1.32 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 81.4% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 55.3% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -7.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fiorentina
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-2 (L)
Frosinone
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezia · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fiorentina win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.