Curva Fiesole - Viola Park · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Fiorentina W vs Sassuolo W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Fiorentina W and 1.33 for Sassuolo W, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Fiorentina W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fiorentina W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sassuolo W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fiorentina W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Fiorentina W and 1.33 for Sassuolo W, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Fiorentina W
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ternana W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lazio W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa W · 3-2 (W)
Sassuolo W
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma W · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ternana W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A Cup Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milano W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Lazio W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Juventus W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Sassuolo W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | AC Milan W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Fiorentina W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Roma W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Parma W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Ternana W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 11 | Napoli W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.