Curva Fiesole - Viola Park · Referee J. Gallorini · Analysis updated 03:51 UTC
Fiorentina W vs Ternana W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.06 expected goals for Fiorentina W and 0.88 for Ternana W, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Fiorentina W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fiorentina W win
64.7% probability
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fiorentina W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ternana W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fiorentina W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.06 goals for Fiorentina W and 0.88 for Ternana W, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–07.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Double chance — Draw/Away at 2.80 (model 35.3% vs market 32.3%, edge +3.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/AwayValue | 2.80 | 32.3% | 35.3% | 2.83 | +3.0 |
| Match result | Away | 6.25 | 14.1% | 15.1% | 6.62 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 42.8% | 43.7% | 2.29 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.36 | 64.9% | 64.7% | 1.55 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.0% | 20.2% | 4.95 | -0.8 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 57.2% | 56.3% | 1.78 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 80.7% | 79.8% | 1.25 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.04 | 87.0% | 84.9% | 1.18 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fiorentina W
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Ternana W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lazio W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa W · 3-2 (W)
Ternana W
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Parma W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Como W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · Fiorentina W 3-1 Ternana W (Serie A Cup Women)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina W 2-2 Ternana W (Serie A Women)
- 2025-12-07T14:00:00.000Z · Fiorentina W 1-0 Ternana W (Serie A Women)
Serie A Cup Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milano W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Lazio W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Juventus W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Sassuolo W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | AC Milan W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Fiorentina W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Roma W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Parma W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Ternana W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 11 | Napoli W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fiorentina W win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.