Stadio di Fiorentino · Analysis updated 06:52 UTC
Fiorentino vs La Fiorita Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Fiorentino and 1.72 for La Fiorita, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives La Fiorita the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
La Fiorita win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fiorentino home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
La Fiorita away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.6%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–06.7%
Recent form
Fiorentino
- 2026-05-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs La Fiorita · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs La Fiorita · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs La Fiorita · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Murata · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Faetano · 1-2 (L)
La Fiorita
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Murata · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Domagnano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marino Academy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-05T18:45:00.000Z · Fiorentino 3-2 La Fiorita (Campionato)
- 2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · Fiorentino 0-1 La Fiorita (Campionato)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · Fiorentino 1-2 La Fiorita (Campionato)
- 2026-02-11T20:15:00.000Z · Fiorentino 1-0 La Fiorita (Campionato)
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Fiorentino 0-3 La Fiorita (Campionato)
- 2024-12-08T14:00:00.000Z · Fiorentino 1-2 La Fiorita (Campionato)
- 2024-03-13T20:15:00.000Z · Fiorentino 0-2 La Fiorita (Campionato)
- 2023-12-06T19:45:00.000Z · Fiorentino 1-4 La Fiorita (Coppa Titano)
- 2023-12-03T14:00:00.000Z · Fiorentino 1-3 La Fiorita (Campionato)
- 2023-11-08T19:45:00.000Z · Fiorentino 1-2 La Fiorita (Coppa Titano)
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Virtus | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Fiorentino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | San Giovanni | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is La Fiorita win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.