Stadio comunale · Analysis updated 18:35 UTC
Fiorenzuola vs Piacenza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Fiorenzuola and 1.50 for Piacenza, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Piacenza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Piacenza win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
0.58 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fiorenzuola home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Piacenza away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Piacenza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 14% / 26% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.58 goals for Fiorenzuola and 1.50 for Piacenza, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.8%
- 0–214.1%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Fiorenzuola
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Piacenza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Villa Valle · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldiero Terme · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusaporto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pro Palazzolo · 0-1 (L)
Piacenza
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Calepina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Verona · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tritium · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lentigione · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Chievo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Piacenza | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milan II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Virtus Verona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Calepina | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Scanzorosciate | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Pavonese | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Pro Palazzolo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Brusaporto | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Rovato Vertovese | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Club Milano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Tritium | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Piacenza win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.