Stadio comunale · Analysis updated 11:29 UTC
Fiorenzuola vs Pro Palazzolo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Fiorenzuola and 1.39 for Pro Palazzolo, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Pro Palazzolo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pro Palazzolo win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fiorenzuola home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pro Palazzolo away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pro Palazzolo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 22% / 28% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for Fiorenzuola and 1.39 for Pro Palazzolo, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.4%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–011.1%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–09.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 58.3% vs market 52.2%, edge +6.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.2% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +6.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.8% | 72.5% | 1.38 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 77.8% | 78.1% | 1.28 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.75 | 50.4% | 50.6% | 1.98 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 4.00 | 22.0% | 21.9% | 4.57 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.6% | 27.5% | 3.64 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.85 | 50.4% | 49.4% | 2.02 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 47.8% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -6.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fiorenzuola
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Piacenza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Villa Valle · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldiero Terme · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusaporto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pro Palazzolo · 0-1 (L)
Pro Palazzolo
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldiero Terme · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusaporto · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Scanzorosciate · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nibbiano & Valtidone · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Fiorenzuola · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Chievo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | Piacenza | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Leon | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milan II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Calepina | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Virtus Verona | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Pavonese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Pro Palazzolo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | Scanzorosciate | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Brusaporto | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Club Milano | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Rovato Vertovese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Tritium | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pro Palazzolo win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.