· Analysis updated 15:55 UTC
Firpo vs Alianza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Firpo and 1.10 for Alianza, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Firpo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Firpo win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Firpo home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Firpo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Firpo and 1.10 for Alianza, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Firpo
- 2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Saprissa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Inca Aruba · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal Limeño · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-01T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Fuerte San Francisco · 3-0 (W)
Alianza
- 2026-10-21T02:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacahuatique · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T01:30:00.000Z · A vs FAS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Firpo · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Presidente table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Águila | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | FAS | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 3 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 4 | Firpo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Alianza | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Municipal Limeño | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Fuerte San Francisco | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Hércules | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Isidro Metapán | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Cacahuatique | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Batanecos | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Platense | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | El Roble | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Cabanas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Izalco | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Zacatecoluca | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Dragón | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Cruzeiro | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Talleres Jr | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 20 | Tenancingo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 21 | Vendaval | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 22 | Fuerte Aguilares | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 23 | Once Municipal | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 24 | Racing de Gualuca | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Firpo win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.