Firpo vs Isidro Metapán Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Firpo and 0.90 for Isidro Metapán, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Firpo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

72.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Firpo home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Isidro Metapán away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Firpo win44%

Draw29%

Isidro Metapán win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–014.6%
1–113.2%
0–011.9%
0–110.7%
2–09.0%

Recent form

Firpo

2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-01T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Fuerte San Francisco · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Águila · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-24T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Balboa · 3-1 (W)

Isidro Metapán

2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Fuerte San Francisco · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Águila · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Balboa · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-13T23:30:00.000Z · Firpo 1-2 Isidro Metapán (Primera Division)
2026-05-10T01:00:00.000Z · Firpo 1-1 Isidro Metapán (Primera Division)
2026-05-07T16:00:00.000Z · Firpo 2-1 Isidro Metapán (Primera Division)
2026-04-16T01:00:00.000Z · Firpo 0-2 Isidro Metapán (Primera Division)
2026-02-19T01:30:00.000Z · Firpo 0-1 Isidro Metapán (Primera Division)
2025-11-02T01:00:00.000Z · Firpo 2-1 Isidro Metapán (Primera Division)
2025-08-31T23:00:00.000Z · Firpo 1-2 Isidro Metapán (Primera Division)
2025-04-20T01:00:00.000Z · Firpo 0-0 Isidro Metapán (Primera Division)
2025-02-23T01:15:00.000Z · Firpo 0-0 Isidro Metapán (Primera Division)
2024-11-10T21:00:00.000Z · Firpo 2-0 Isidro Metapán (Primera Division)

Primera Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Firpo	15	9	4	2	17	31
2	FAS	15	9	3	3	12	30
3	Isidro Metapán	15	9	2	4	6	29
4	Águila	16	6	6	4	7	24
5	Inter	16	5	8	3	6	23
6	Platense	16	6	4	6	0	22
7	Alianza	15	4	8	3	1	20
8	Municipal Limeño	16	6	2	8	0	20
9	Inca Aruba	16	4	4	8	-16	16
10	Atletico Balboa	16	3	5	8	-8	14
11	Cacahuatique	16	2	6	8	-11	12
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	2	6	8	-14	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.