First Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for First Vienna and 2.25 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Rapid Vienna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 2.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

First Vienna home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Rapid Vienna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rapid Vienna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 35% / 20% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for First Vienna and 2.25 for Rapid Vienna, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

First Vienna win35%

Draw20%

Rapid Vienna win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

1–27.2%
2–27.2%
1–16.4%
2–16.4%
1–35.4%

Recent form

First Vienna

2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs WSPG Wels · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Wien II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Salzburg · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SKU Amstetten · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 1-0 (W)

Rapid Vienna

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lask Linz · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Klagenfurt · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Red Bull Salzburg · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-01-24T10:00:00.000Z · First Vienna 0-1 Rapid Vienna (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-03-21T14:00:00.000Z · First Vienna 0-3 Rapid Vienna (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-10-12T15:30:00.000Z · First Vienna 1-4 Rapid Vienna (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-12-02T14:00:00.000Z · First Vienna 1-4 Rapid Vienna (Friendlies Clubs)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.