· Analysis updated 18:38 UTC
First Vienna W vs Südburgenland W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for First Vienna W and 1.04 for Südburgenland W, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives First Vienna W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
First Vienna W win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
First Vienna W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Südburgenland W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates First Vienna W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 19% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for First Vienna W and 1.04 for Südburgenland W, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–18.6%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–17.4%
Recent form
First Vienna W
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Rapid W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Salzburg W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs LASK W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Rheindorf Altach W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pölten W · 1-4 (L)
Südburgenland W
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SK Rapid W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs First Vienna W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Salzburg W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Frauenliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz W | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Austria Wien W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 22 |
| 3 | St. Pölten W | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 22 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach W | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Salzburg W | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 6 | LASK W | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 7 | First Vienna W | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | SK Rapid W | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 7 |
| 9 | Südburgenland W | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -21 | 5 |
| 10 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is First Vienna W win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.