Fjarðabyggðarhöllin · Analysis updated 10:36 UTC
Fjard / Hött / Leiknir W vs Stjarnan W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Fjard / Hött / Leiknir W and 2.20 for Stjarnan W, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Stjarnan W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stjarnan W win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fjard / Hött / Leiknir W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stjarnan W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stjarnan W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 30% / 20% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Fjard / Hött / Leiknir W and 2.20 for Stjarnan W, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–36.1%
Recent form
Fjard / Hött / Leiknir W
- 2025-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tindastóll W · 2-5 (L)
- 2025-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Thór / KA W · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-09-27T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Fram W · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Víkingur Reykjavík W · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Breidablik W · 1-5 (L)
Stjarnan W
- 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Víkingur Reykjavík W · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Thróttur Reykjavík W · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-10-06T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Valur W · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FH W · 3-4 (L)
- 2025-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Breidablik W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Fjard / Hött / Leiknir W 0-3 Stjarnan W (Úrvalsdeild Women)
- 2025-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · Fjard / Hött / Leiknir W 0-1 Stjarnan W (Úrvalsdeild Women)
Úrvalsdeild Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Breidablik W | 17 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 46 |
| 2 | FH W | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 38 |
| 3 | Thróttur Reykjavík W | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 36 |
| 4 | Valur W | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 5 | Víkingur Reykjavík W | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | Stjarnan W | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 25 |
| 7 | Thór / KA W | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -10 | 21 |
| 8 | Fram W | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | -19 | 21 |
| 9 | Tindastóll W | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 17 |
| 10 | Fjard / Hött / Leiknir W | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | -45 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stjarnan W win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.