Extra Vollurinn · Analysis updated 17:41 UTC
Fjolnir vs KFG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Fjolnir and 1.42 for KFG, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Fjolnir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fjolnir win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fjolnir home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
KFG away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fjolnir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 17% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Fjolnir and 1.42 for KFG, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–26.0%
- 2–05.9%
Recent form
Fjolnir
- 2026-08-23T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kári · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Selfoss · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KFG · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-29T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Olafsiik · 2-2 (D)
KFG
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalvík / Reynir · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kormákur / Hvöt · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hvíti riddarinn · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fjolnir · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · Fjolnir 4-1 KFG (2. Deild)
- 2026-06-01T19:15:00.000Z · Fjolnir 3-4 KFG (2. Deild)
2. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 47 |
| 2 | Selfoss | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Kári | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 42 |
| 4 | Dalvík / Reynir | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 31 |
| 5 | Vikingur Olafsiik | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | -8 | 31 |
| 6 | Fjolnir | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 30 |
| 7 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 29 |
| 8 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 27 |
| 9 | Magni | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 25 |
| 10 | Thróttur Vogar | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | -9 | 23 |
| 11 | KFG | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -20 | 22 |
| 12 | Hvíti riddarinn | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -26 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fjolnir win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.