Frank Mitchell Park · Analysis updated 05:48 UTC
FK Beograd vs Adelaide City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for FK Beograd and 1.48 for Adelaide City, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives Adelaide City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Adelaide City to Win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–29.6%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–08.7%
Why the model likes this
FK Beograd home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Adelaide City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 24% / 26% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for FK Beograd and 1.48 for Adelaide City, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
FK Beograd
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Campbelltown City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Kings · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-07-25T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Comets · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United II · 0-2 (L)
Adelaide City
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
South Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Beograd | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | -86 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.