Frank Mitchell Park · Analysis updated 04:35 UTC
FK Beograd vs Adelaide United II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for FK Beograd and 0.90 for Adelaide United II, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives FK Beograd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Beograd win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Beograd home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Adelaide United II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.6%
- 2–011.0%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.0%
Recent form
FK Beograd
- 2026-08-22T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Playford City Patriots · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Campbelltown City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Kings · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-07-25T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Comets · 0-1 (L)
Adelaide United II
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · A vs West Torrens Birkalla · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Para Hills Knights · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T09:45:00.000Z · A vs MetroStars · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturt Lions · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs FK Beograd · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-19T08:30:00.000Z · FK Beograd 0-2 Adelaide United II (South Australia NPL)
- 2026-03-06T05:30:00.000Z · FK Beograd 1-0 Adelaide United II (South Australia NPL)
- 2025-08-24T08:30:00.000Z · FK Beograd 1-2 Adelaide United II (South Australia NPL)
- 2025-06-14T07:30:00.000Z · FK Beograd 3-1 Adelaide United II (South Australia NPL)
- 2025-03-13T05:30:00.000Z · FK Beograd 1-2 Adelaide United II (South Australia NPL)
- 2024-08-03T05:30:00.000Z · FK Beograd 1-4 Adelaide United II (South Australia NPL)
- 2024-05-11T07:30:00.000Z · FK Beograd 2-2 Adelaide United II (South Australia NPL)
- 2023-07-07T10:00:00.000Z · FK Beograd 3-0 Adelaide United II (South Australia NPL)
- 2023-04-22T09:45:00.000Z · FK Beograd 0-3 Adelaide United II (South Australia NPL)
- 2022-07-30T05:30:00.000Z · FK Beograd 1-2 Adelaide United II (South Australia NPL)
South Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Beograd | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | -86 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Beograd win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.