Frank Mitchell Park · Analysis updated 13:20 UTC
FK Beograd vs West Adelaide Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for FK Beograd and 1.53 for West Adelaide, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives FK Beograd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Beograd win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Beograd home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
West Adelaide away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
FK Beograd
- 2026-08-22T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Playford City Patriots · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Campbelltown City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Croydon Kings · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-07-25T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide Comets · 0-1 (L)
West Adelaide
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Playford City Patriots · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-07T10:30:00.000Z · A vs West Torrens Birkalla · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Para Hills Knights · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T09:45:00.000Z · A vs MetroStars · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturt Lions · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-04T07:30:00.000Z · FK Beograd 1-0 West Adelaide (South Australia NPL)
- 2026-04-11T08:30:00.000Z · FK Beograd 0-0 West Adelaide (South Australia NPL)
- 2023-06-16T10:00:00.000Z · FK Beograd 3-1 West Adelaide (South Australia NPL)
- 2023-04-01T06:45:00.000Z · FK Beograd 1-0 West Adelaide (South Australia NPL)
- 2021-08-31T10:45:00.000Z · FK Beograd 2-0 West Adelaide (South Australia State League 1)
- 2021-05-08T00:00:00.000Z · FK Beograd 1-0 West Adelaide (South Australia State League 1)
South Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Beograd | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | -86 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Beograd win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.