Stadion Rajko Mit · Referee N. Minakovic · Analysis updated 13:29 UTC
FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 1.03 for FK Partizan, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives FK Crvena Zvezda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Crvena Zvezda win
70.7% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Crvena Zvezda home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FK Partizan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 2–09.1%
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.8%
- 1–17.2%
Recent form
FK Crvena Zvezda
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lucani · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 3-0 (W)
FK Partizan
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Novi Pazar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 2-1 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 3-0 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2026-02-22T16:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 3-0 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2025-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 2-1 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 2-1 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 3-3 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2024-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 4-0 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2024-04-24T17:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 2-0 FK Partizan (Cup)
- 2024-04-20T16:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 3-2 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
- 2024-03-09T16:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 2-2 FK Partizan (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 34 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Železničar Pančevo | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | IMT Novi Beograd | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 6 | Cukaricki | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 18 |
| 8 | Radnik Surdulica | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | FK Partizan | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Macva | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Crvena Zvezda win, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.