Stadion Rajko Mit · Referee Milan Stefanovic, Serbia · Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Macva Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.99 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.40 for Macva, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives FK Crvena Zvezda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Crvena Zvezda win
88.5% probability
Expected goals
2.99 – 0.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Crvena Zvezda home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Macva away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Crvena Zvezda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 9% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.99 goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.40 for Macva, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
12%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.1%
- 3–015.0%
- 4–011.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 5–06.7%
Recent form
FK Crvena Zvezda
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lucani · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-1 (W)
Macva
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lucani · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki 1923 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Novi Pazar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 34 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 28 |
| 3 | IMT Novi Beograd | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Železničar Pančevo | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Radnik Surdulica | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 17 |
| 8 | Cukaricki | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | FK Partizan | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Macva | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -19 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Crvena Zvezda win, at 88.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.