Stadion Rajko Mit · Referee P. Janjus · Analysis updated 18:36 UTC
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Novi Pazar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.65 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.60 for Novi Pazar, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives FK Crvena Zvezda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Crvena Zvezda win
80.9% probability
Expected goals
2.65 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Crvena Zvezda home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Novi Pazar away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.6%
- 3–012.0%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–08.0%
Recent form
FK Crvena Zvezda
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lucani · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 3-0 (W)
Novi Pazar
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemun · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Cukaricki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Macva · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 2-0 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 1-2 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2026-03-05T13:45:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 2-0 Novi Pazar (Cup)
- 2026-02-07T15:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 5-0 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2025-08-31T17:30:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 5-1 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2025-05-17T16:30:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 3-3 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2025-04-02T17:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 2-1 Novi Pazar (Cup)
- 2024-12-15T14:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 7-1 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2024-08-10T18:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 4-1 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
- 2024-02-17T13:00:00.000Z · FK Crvena Zvezda 3-0 Novi Pazar (Super Liga)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 34 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Železničar Pančevo | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | IMT Novi Beograd | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 6 | Cukaricki | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | -6 | 18 |
| 8 | Radnik Surdulica | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Novi Pazar | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | FK Partizan | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | OFK Beograd | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Macva | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 10 |
| 13 | Radnicki NIS | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Crvena Zvezda win, at 80.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.