Rajko Mitić Stadion · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki NIS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.50 for Radnicki NIS, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives FK Crvena Zvezda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Crvena Zvezda win
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FK Crvena Zvezda home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Radnicki NIS away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Crvena Zvezda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 25% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.50 for Radnicki NIS, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.0%
- 2–015.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–110.0%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
FK Crvena Zvezda
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IMT Novi Beograd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 0-0 (D)
Radnicki NIS
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Beograd · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Lucani · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Crvena Zvezda win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.